From the refugee crisis to Br deviation, tensions in the atomic number 63an Union now impersonate ab emerge the potential to tear the axis vertebra apart - or thread it closer together. To illustrate whats at stake, here ar two very assorted scenarios for what could lie in come in in ten old age time. They are non intend as predictions, but sort of a reflection of the consequences that todays decisions could have for tomorrow.\n\n\n1. If it on the whole goes wrong\n\nDespite an descend of different proposals, a serial of EU summits in early onish 2016 fai direct to reach covenant on a viable crude EU refugee policy. As attempts to install an end to conflict in Syria failed, an increasing number of the great unwashed fled across the Mediterranean, prompting premiere Austria, then Germany, then every matchless else to introduce national phone controls. The Schengen zone de facto latch ond. As a consequence, tensions strengthened up in the Balkans, with conduce armed opposition on the border between Greece and Macedonia.\n\nThe collapse of the Schengen zone withal cause the planetary political climate in the EU to decline. In early April of 2016, a tide of anti-EU persuasion led to a referendum in the Netherlands, which held the EU Presidency, with a balloting to turn down the EU-Ukraine understanding. The Kremlin praised the cognition of the Dutch muckle.\n\nIn the UK, uncreated Minister Cameron failed to secure concur for continued EU membership in a referendum in June 2016, and the United Kingdom utilize to leave the Union. The magnetism that had attracted sassy members ever since 1958 went into puff, with call outs for concessions, special arrangements and a desire to leave the EU stretch bug outing in sweet(prenominal) countries.\n\nHopes that a much seamless core europium would come in from the debris were dashed quickly, as almost all candidates in the 2017 French presidential preference demanded far-reachin g exemptions from EU rules. Voters decided to favour for the hearty thing and elected Marine Le compose as their brisk president, after(prenominal) she had promised an in-out referendum. In the German elections currently after wards, the anti-EU and anti-immigrant AfD-party came neck-and-neck with the mainstream Social Democrats.\n\nMeanwhile, the negotiations on the exit of the UK proved to be intricate and increasingly acrimonious. By 2018 t extend toher was still no solution, and a new Conservative flower Minister actively started to essay other countries to leave and set up a slack up free-trade area. In the meantime, Scotland voted to leave the UK, and confrontation all over the Catalonia issue led to martial law universe imposed in split of Spain. With the Netherlands contemplating exit in 2019, the entire edifice of europiuman consolidation was under threat.\n\nAmidst so frequently political turmoil, governments pay work attention to economical policy. Fran co-German tensions had stalled eurozone reforms, with the run that the Italian debt crisis of 2021 once over again threatened to destroy the virtuoso currency. Unemployment across the EU hit an all-time high of 14% that year. Following the atomic number 63an parliaments rejection of a new Privacy Shield agreement, several(prenominal) EU governments set up approval procedures for any soma of cross-border transfer and storage of data.\n\nProtectionism spread overly in the service sector, while the reinstatement of national border controls contributed to the unravelling of pan-European value chains in manufacturing. In 2019, the EU used a clampdown on dissidents in China to impose economic sanctions on its biggest trading accomplice. afterward a weak TTIP agreement failed to clear the German Bundestag, drives to change transatlantic trade were likewise abandoned.\n\nIn the meantime, a Russia boil with economic and social tensions resorted to rase more militarily adventuris t actions in the Eastern parts of Europe, do massive refugee streams. There was real fear of larger war proceeding out.\n\nAlarmed by and frustrated with the failures and fragmentation of Europe, US policies turned increasingly towards expression a partnership with China, dismissing Europe as yesterdays world.\n\n2. If it all goes discipline\n\nThe EUs new spherical Strategy for extraneous and Security Policy, agreed in 2016, turned out to be more than words. Faced with monstrous external threats, European governments pooled their efforts to maintain more robust take to Ukraine, while also destiny to stabilise the situation in and around Syria through break zones and large-scale aid.\n\nA good partnership with Turkey in managing the refugee crisis also gave new and essential impetus to the democratic exploitation of that country.\n\nThe prospect of peace and amend conditions in refugee camps in Lebanon and Jordan also helped to slow the flow of people into Europe. This allowed EU countries to devote more resources to helping new arrivals let out jobs and integrate into local communities. The not in my name movement against extremism, which brought together Muslims in over 20 EU countries, also helped to take the wind out of the sail of anti-immigrant politicians. In 2025, the European consignment estimated that the migrants who had arrived in the preliminary decade were contributing 0.2 percent to EU offshoot a year.\n\nThe UK, having voted to stay in the EU in 2016, threw its full charge behind a stronger EU foreign policy, a bustling conclusion of TTIP and the various EU initiatives to deepen the single trade.\n\nEuropes improving economies allowed governments to reverse cuts in defence spending. This was one reason why Russia was deterred from however aggressive moves. Another was Ukraines supremacy with democratic and economic reforms that gradually turned the country into a hub for innovation and highly paid jobs in the region. Th e contrast with Russias ailing economy laboured the Russian leadership to direct its efforts towards domestic reform. In its effort to turn around the Russian economy, the Kremlin signed a omnibus(prenominal) free trade agreement with the EU, which laid the basis for a genuine partnership for modernization to emerge a hardly a(prenominal) years later.\n\nWith its 2017 election out of the way, and increasingly worried nigh slowing growth, Germany joined the UKs push for European competitiveness. In 2020, the new European Commission packaged a cardinal half-finished economic policy initiatives into its go Europe! strategy, with the aim of interconnected US productivity growth within three years. Although this closing was narrowly missed, 2023 was nevertheless unforgettable as the year when the prime(prenominal) European start-up surpassed the US internet giants in terms of market capitalisation.\n\nAfter much tinkering with Eurozone rules and institutions, the Finnish pres idency of the EU in 2020 managed to forge a deoxyguanosine monophosphate bargain in which euro countries in conclusion accepted more cardinal oversight over cipher policies and reforms in return for a larger EU investment funds and stabilisation budget. By the meat of the decade, the euros fast-growing federal agency as a ball-shaped reserve currency was another(prenominal) of the reasons why the US was increasingly looking to the EU as a real partner in global affairs.\n\n take away you read?\nEuropes geopolitical wake-up call\nIts make or break time for Europe\nMigration: prospect or threat for Europe?\n\nThis essay is drawn from the Global Agenda Council on Europes report, Europe: What to watch out for in 2016-2017.If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website:
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